Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL202020 200919 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     24.40     57.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   115.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   115.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     4.60             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     55.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     27.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     91.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        17.1  17.3  23.0  23.7  10.6  27.7  56.7  70.2  F  F  N  N  F  N VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   42.0  38.0  34.0  24.0   8.0  19.0   0.0   0.0  N  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         50.0  50.0  50.0  50.0  50.0  50.0  42.3  16.2  U  U  U  U  U  U  U VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   -23.0   0.0  -4.0  11.0  60.0  57.0 106.0 213.0 VU  U  U  U  N  N  F VF
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   45.0  45.0  44.0  47.0  55.0  61.0  62.0  55.0 VU VU VU VU  U  N  N  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  14.0   9.0  -2.0  -2.0   1.0  14.0  14.0  34.0  U  U  N  N  N  U  U VU


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       10.2%        3.8%        7.0%
 25kt / 24h        3.3%        4.6%        4.0%
 30kt / 24h        3.3%        2.6%        2.9%
 35kt / 24h        2.8%        2.6%        2.7%
 40kt / 24h        1.5%        1.9%        1.7%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%