Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL202020 200919 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     25.50     58.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   105.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   105.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -10.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     6.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     93.00             F
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     66.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]     10.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    108.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        17.7  21.1  22.5  15.0  14.3  35.2  67.6  64.5  F  N  N  F  F  U VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   36.0  33.0  22.0  12.0   3.0  18.0   5.0   8.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         60.0  60.0  60.0  60.0  60.0  59.3  43.6  -0.8  U  U  U  U  U  U  U VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]     0.0   3.0 -16.0  21.0  68.0  74.0  69.0 126.0  U  U  U  U  N  N  N  F
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   45.0  44.0  45.0  51.0  58.0  65.0  61.0  64.0 VU VU VU  U  U  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   4.0  -4.0   0.0   2.0   4.0   7.0  80.0  55.0  N  F  N  N  N  N VU VU


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        1.9%        2.4%        2.2%
 25kt / 24h        1.8%        5.6%        3.7%
 30kt / 24h        1.6%        4.0%        2.8%
 35kt / 24h        1.6%        4.0%        2.8%
 40kt / 24h        0.1%        2.2%        1.2%
 45kt / 36h       19.7%        2.8%       11.3%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%