Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL202020 200919 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     26.30     59.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   105.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   105.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -10.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     89.00             F
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     68.00             F
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    116.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        22.7  21.0  15.5  11.3  19.8  57.7  70.1  54.5  N  N  F  F  N VU VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   35.0  24.0  14.0  10.0   7.0   0.0  22.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         60.0  60.0  60.0  60.0  60.0  54.6  37.4 -27.4  U  U  U  U  U  U  U VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   -10.0   7.0  32.0  48.0  35.0 104.0 147.0  72.0  U  U  N  N  N  F VF  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   43.0  45.0  51.0  55.0  61.0  63.0  57.0  61.0 VU VU  U  U  N  N  U  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -5.0   0.0   4.0   0.0   5.0  -2.0  34.0  -5.0  F  N  N  N  N  N VU  F


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        1.8%        1.9%        1.8%
 25kt / 24h        2.4%        6.1%        4.2%
 30kt / 24h        1.9%        4.4%        3.1%
 35kt / 24h        1.9%        4.4%        3.1%
 40kt / 24h        0.2%        2.6%        1.4%
 45kt / 36h       19.5%        2.5%       11.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%