Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL202020 200920 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     26.90     60.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   105.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   105.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     91.00             F
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     50.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    113.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        21.4  14.8  12.7  17.9  32.7  64.3  63.6  53.5  N  F  F  F  U VU VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   30.0  24.0  14.0  12.0   9.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         60.0  60.0  60.0  60.0  60.0  52.3  22.7 -34.8  U  U  U  U  U  U VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    29.0  20.0  47.0  59.0  66.0 110.0 127.0  85.0  N  U  N  N  N  F  F  F
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   44.0  50.0  50.0  56.0  62.0  60.0  59.0  58.0 VU  U  U  U  N  N  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   3.0  -1.0   0.0  25.0  91.0  48.0 -21.0  N  N  N  N VU VU VU VF


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        7.9%        5.8%        6.9%
 25kt / 24h       10.1%       14.4%       12.3%
 30kt / 24h        7.3%       11.8%        9.6%
 35kt / 24h        7.2%       11.8%        9.5%
 40kt / 24h        1.7%        7.9%        4.8%
 45kt / 36h       27.4%        5.0%       16.2%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%