Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL202020 200920 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     27.60     61.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   100.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   100.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.00             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     38.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     30.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      7.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     91.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        16.2  12.1  15.1  21.2  42.8  70.7  51.9  54.5  F  F  F  N VU VU VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   19.0  13.0  10.0   6.0  12.0  55.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  N  U  U
 Potential [kt]         65.0  65.0  65.0  65.0  64.3  46.5  -1.8 -40.8  U  U  U  U  U  U VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    34.0  38.0  50.0  44.0  78.0 161.0  70.0  87.0  N  N  N  N  N VF  N  F
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   51.0  54.0  58.0  58.0  60.0  55.0  60.0  61.0  U  U  U  U  N  U  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   2.0   0.0  -1.0   8.0  13.0  60.0   1.0 -17.0  N  N  N  U  U VU  N VF


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        3.7%        2.2%        3.0%
 25kt / 24h        2.2%        5.3%        3.7%
 30kt / 24h        2.2%        2.9%        2.5%
 35kt / 24h        1.6%        2.9%        2.2%
 40kt / 24h        1.6%        2.8%        2.2%
 45kt / 36h       14.3%        1.1%        7.7%
 55kt / 36h        0.2%        0.3%        0.2%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%