Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL202020 200920 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     28.00     62.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    90.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    90.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -15.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     6.60             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     35.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     27.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      7.70             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     98.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        15.5  19.4  25.0  32.2  65.5  64.5  47.2  58.1  F  N  N  U VU VU VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   18.0  15.0   8.0   2.0   2.0   1.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         75.0  75.0  75.0  75.0  69.6  56.5 -13.1 -31.1  U  U  U  U  U  U VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    46.0  46.0  51.0  73.0  93.0 163.0  61.0  44.0  N  N  N  N  F VF  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   52.0  57.0  58.0  60.0  57.0  53.0  56.0  59.0  U  U  U  N  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   3.0   0.0  11.0  19.0  73.0  41.0 -15.0 -32.0  N  N  U VU VU VU VF VF


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.9%        1.0%        1.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.6%        2.5%        1.6%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        1.2%        0.7%
 35kt / 24h        0.2%        1.2%        0.7%
 40kt / 24h        0.2%        1.2%        0.7%
 45kt / 36h        0.4%        0.2%        0.3%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%