Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL202020 200920 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     28.60     63.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    90.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    90.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -10.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.60             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     43.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     18.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     93.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        17.2  25.4  31.7  47.5  68.3  48.6  46.6  53.6  F  N  U VU VU VU VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   17.0  13.0   2.0  16.0  24.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         75.0  75.0  75.0  75.0  58.6  31.1 -25.4 -31.5  U  U  U  U  U VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    71.0  50.0  75.0  65.0 160.0  77.0  67.0  60.0  N  N  N  N VF  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   57.0  55.0  57.0  56.0  54.0  54.0  57.0  59.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0  11.0  21.0  30.0  84.0  -3.0 -18.0 -29.0  N  U VU VU VU  N VF VF


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        1.9%        1.7%        1.8%
 25kt / 24h        0.8%        2.8%        1.8%
 30kt / 24h        0.5%        1.3%        0.9%
 35kt / 24h        0.5%        1.3%        0.9%
 40kt / 24h        0.5%        1.2%        0.9%
 45kt / 36h        0.2%        0.2%        0.2%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%