Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL202020 200921 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     29.00     63.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    90.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    90.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     6.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     59.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     30.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.70             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    106.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        24.2  29.0  47.3  65.5  59.4  44.7  52.9  52.2  N  N VU VU VU VU VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   13.0   4.0  14.0   0.0  44.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  N  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         75.0  75.0  75.0  72.0  62.9  12.9 -31.9 -35.7  U  U  U  U  U VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    57.0  91.0  75.0  98.0 145.0  64.0  76.0  71.0  N  F  N  F VF  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   56.0  55.0  56.0  55.0  54.0  51.0  60.0  63.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  10.0  20.0  36.0 106.0  43.0 -15.0 -10.0 -28.0  U VU VU VU VU VF  F VF


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        7.4%        3.6%        5.5%
 25kt / 24h        1.7%        3.1%        2.4%
 30kt / 24h        1.2%        1.4%        1.3%
 35kt / 24h        1.2%        1.4%        1.3%
 40kt / 24h        0.8%        1.2%        1.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.5%        0.3%        0.4%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%