Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL202020 200921 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     29.70     63.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    85.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    85.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.40             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     73.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     38.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    117.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        27.5  47.0  65.9  72.2  51.7  54.1  55.8  52.2  N VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    2.0  16.0   1.0  26.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         80.0  80.0  74.6  65.7  41.0 -20.9 -26.9 -38.2  N  N  U  U  U VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    85.0  73.0  85.0 141.0  80.0 105.0  86.0  75.0  F  N  F VF  N  F  F  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   57.0  58.0  54.0  53.0  51.0  56.0  63.0  63.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  15.0  17.0  83.0  85.0  -6.0 -23.0 -11.0 -84.0  U  U VU VU  F VF  F VF


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        2.4%        1.5%        1.9%
 25kt / 24h        0.6%        1.1%        0.8%
 30kt / 24h        0.1%        0.4%        0.3%
 35kt / 24h        0.1%        0.4%        0.3%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.3%        0.1%
 45kt / 36h        0.2%        0.1%        0.1%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%