Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL202020 200921 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     30.50     63.00
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    80.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    80.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -10.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     58.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     40.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      8.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    121.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        45.4  64.2  72.7  65.6  50.1  59.3  50.6  58.7 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   13.0   0.0  21.0  46.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  N  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         85.0  82.0  72.9  72.9  26.7 -22.7 -26.0 -35.5  N  N  U  U VU VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    98.0  88.0 146.0 167.0  88.0  52.0 107.0  33.0  F  F VF VF  F  N  F  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   55.0  54.0  53.0  52.0  52.0  59.0  68.0  59.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  N  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  29.0  92.0  86.0  57.0 -18.0 -22.0 -30.0 -83.0 VU VU VU VU VF VF VF VF


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.3%        0.3%        0.3%
 25kt / 24h        0.1%        0.4%        0.2%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%