Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL202020 200921 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     32.20     62.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    80.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    80.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     9.40             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     46.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     21.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    131.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        63.0  66.6  62.1  46.6  51.9  59.8  53.2  57.9 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    0.0  13.0  48.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  N  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         82.0  70.7  70.7  60.5  -0.8 -21.9 -30.8 -37.6  N  U  U  U VU VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    79.0 127.0 150.0  79.0  94.0 120.0  58.0  91.0  N  F VF  N  F  F  N  F
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   55.0  53.0  54.0  51.0  55.0  62.0  66.0  55.0  U  U  U  U  U  N  N  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  84.0  86.0  48.0 -16.0 -19.0 -15.0 -36.0-161.0 VU VU VU VF VF VF VF VF


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.3%        0.1%        0.2%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        0.3%        0.1%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%