Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL202020 200922 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     34.60     61.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    85.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    85.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     8.60             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     23.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      7.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      7.70             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    122.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        66.8  62.5  48.7  43.9  57.7  54.8  58.4  38.2 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    7.0  33.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         65.7  63.6  51.6  20.4 -27.7 -33.7 -42.2 -42.5  U  U  U VU VU VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   128.0 170.0  82.0  43.0  65.0  79.0  82.0 102.0  F VF  N  N  N  N  N  F
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   55.0  56.0  56.0  53.0  58.0  71.0  65.0  67.0  U  U  U  U  U  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 107.0  56.0 -12.0 -27.0 -14.0 -36.0-125.0 -18.0 VU VU  F VF VF VF VF VF


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        1.1%        0.1%        0.6%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons