Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL202020 200922 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     37.60     62.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    85.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    85.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     34.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     14.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      6.10             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    144.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        59.4  47.3  43.0  55.6  56.2  57.1  41.7  24.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    1.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         59.4  19.2 -10.3 -25.3 -30.4 -40.0 -42.6 -44.5  U VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   187.0  80.0  45.0 118.0  83.0  71.0  89.0  90.0 VF  N  N  F  N  N  F  F
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   56.0  58.0  60.0  56.0  65.0  71.0  68.0  73.0  U  U  N  U  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  33.0  -3.0 -18.0 -22.0 -36.0 -52.0-100.0 115.0 VU  N VF VF VF VF VF VU


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.7%        0.1%        0.4%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons