Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL202020 200922 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     39.20     63.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    90.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    90.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      1.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      0.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      3.70             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    123.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        48.2  42.7  53.1  51.7  54.4  50.8  29.7  34.9 VU VU VU VU VU VU  N  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         15.4 -21.6 -34.1 -34.4 -39.7 -48.4 -47.9 -49.4 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    87.0  53.0 100.0  70.0  96.0  99.0  94.0  43.0  F  N  F  N  F  F  F  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   54.0  55.0  55.0  57.0  69.0  74.0  77.0  76.0  U  U  U  U  N  N  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   3.0 -20.0 -21.0 -18.0 -52.0-163.0  43.0  11.0  N VF VF VF VF VF VU  U


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons