Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL202020 200922 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     40.30     64.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    80.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    80.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -10.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      0.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      0.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      4.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    107.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        46.3  55.8  56.1  57.2  53.9  34.4  34.4  34.4 VU VU VU VU VU  U  U  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]          2.4 -18.2 -23.0 -21.9 -33.6 -37.3 -37.3 -37.3 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    69.0  94.0  62.0  89.0 112.0  75.0  75.0  75.0  N  F  N  F  F  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   52.0  56.0  59.0  62.0  70.0  74.0  74.0  74.0  U  U  U  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -16.0 -27.0 -26.0 -24.0 -55.0 -18.0 -18.0 -18.0 VF VF VF VF VF VF VF VF


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons