Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL202020 200923 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     41.90     64.20
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    75.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    75.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -15.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      1.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      0.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      6.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    112.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        57.0  54.1  57.9  56.0  45.5  38.8  38.8  38.8 VU VU VU VU VU  U  U  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        -18.0 -19.7 -18.4 -25.3 -33.2 -33.1 -33.1 -33.1 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   110.0  38.0  87.0 101.0 114.0  74.0  74.0  74.0  F  N  F  F  F  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   54.0  59.0  64.0  70.0  76.0  77.0  77.0  77.0  U  U  N  N  F  F  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -20.0 -24.0 -17.0 -46.0-105.0  36.0  36.0  36.0 VF VF VF VF VF VU VU VU


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons