Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL202020 200923 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     43.50     63.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    60.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    60.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -20.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.00             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      1.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      0.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      5.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    130.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        56.0  58.8  58.1  53.8  38.8  38.8  38.8  38.8 VU VU VU VU  U  U  U  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         -2.7  -4.1 -10.8 -16.7 -17.4 -17.4 -17.4 -17.4 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    36.0  95.0 111.0  98.0  92.0  92.0  92.0  92.0  N  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   60.0  65.0  72.0  76.0  80.0  80.0  80.0  80.0  N  N  N  F  F  F  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -21.0 -12.0 -36.0 -53.0  -3.0  -3.0  -3.0  -3.0 VF  F VF VF  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons