Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL202020 200923 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     45.00     62.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    55.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    55.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -15.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      0.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      0.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      3.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    129.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        57.1  55.3  52.2  46.0  42.7  42.7  42.7  42.7 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]          1.3  -5.3 -10.8 -13.2 -13.0 -13.0 -13.0 -13.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    99.0 123.0 113.0  69.0  62.0  62.0  62.0  62.0  F  F  F  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   64.0  70.0  74.0  74.0  73.0  73.0  73.0  73.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -24.0 -26.0 -58.0 -90.0  -4.0  -4.0  -4.0  -4.0 VF VF VF VF  F  F  F  F


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons