Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL202020 200923 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     47.40     60.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    50.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    50.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -10.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      0.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      0.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      2.50             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    145.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        57.7  56.0  47.3  39.1  39.1  39.1  39.1  39.1 VU VU VU  U  U  U  U  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         -0.8  -6.4  -8.2  -7.4  -7.4  -7.4  -7.4  -7.4 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    95.0  97.0  97.0 103.0 103.0 103.0 103.0 103.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   69.0  74.0  75.0  77.0  77.0  77.0  77.0  77.0  N  N  F  F  F  F  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -42.0 -63.0 -96.0  21.0  21.0  21.0  21.0  21.0 VF VF VF VU VU VU VU VU


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons