Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL212020 200914 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     19.00     29.20
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    40.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    40.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      7.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      3.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      3.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     95.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        46.3  49.6  60.6  66.6  61.3  46.3  33.1  27.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU  U  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    5.0   1.0   0.0   1.0   3.0   1.0   1.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         70.8  69.4  68.0  66.7  68.0  75.0  84.3  91.2  U  U  U  U  U  U  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    79.0  54.0  13.0   7.0   3.0 -14.0 -37.0 -24.0  N  N  U  U  U  U VU VU
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   61.0  58.0  56.0  52.0  51.0  49.0  45.0  40.0  N  U  U  U  U  U VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   8.0  16.0  30.0  27.0  11.0   5.0   5.0   0.0  U  U VU VU  U  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons