Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL212020 200915 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     20.00     29.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    45.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.40             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     15.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     12.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      1.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     76.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        58.3  64.0  60.9  63.7  52.0  41.9  37.1  37.1 VU VU VU VU VU VU  U  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    0.0   0.0   1.0   0.0   0.0   1.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         63.0  61.7  60.4  61.7  67.2  76.1  84.4  89.8  U  U  U  U  U  U  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    29.0  23.0  44.0   9.0   1.0 -20.0 -26.0  10.0  N  U  N  U  U VU VU  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   60.0  56.0  54.0  57.0  53.0  54.0  50.0  50.0  N  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  30.0  28.0  25.0  19.0   5.0   4.0   0.0  -3.0 VU VU VU VU  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons