Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL212020 200915 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     21.00     31.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    40.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    40.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.40             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     10.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      6.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      2.10             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     75.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        67.6  64.8  61.5  60.5  52.5  41.4  32.4  32.4 VU VU VU VU VU VU  U  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    1.0   1.0   2.0   0.0   2.0   1.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         66.7  66.7  69.4  72.2  81.1  87.7  93.0  93.0  U  U  U  U  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    29.0  34.0  32.0   3.0   9.0 -21.0 -29.0 -29.0  N  N  N  U  U VU VU VU
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   53.0  56.0  53.0  55.0  56.0  54.0  51.0  51.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  22.0  14.0   8.0   5.0   5.0   0.0  -2.0  -2.0 VU  U  U  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons