Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL212020 200916 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     21.40     32.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    45.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.40             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      8.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      4.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      3.30             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     83.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        69.1  65.4  60.9  59.5  44.5  40.3  39.5  39.5 VU VU VU VU VU  U  U  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    2.0   2.0   0.0   0.0   2.0   1.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         63.0  64.4  67.2  71.5  77.7  84.4  89.8  89.8  U  U  U  U  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    20.0  30.0   3.0  39.0  13.0  16.0 -12.0 -12.0  U  N  U  N  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   53.0  51.0  53.0  56.0  54.0  53.0  50.0  50.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  17.0  12.0   7.0   5.0   5.0  -5.0  -7.0  -7.0  U  U  N  N  N  F  F  F


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons