Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL212020 200916 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     21.50     33.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    45.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.60             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     10.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      0.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      4.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     80.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        65.3  61.2  62.2  59.0  35.9  39.6  40.3  38.4 VU VU VU VU  U  U  U  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    4.0   0.0   1.0   1.0   2.0   0.0   7.0  13.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         65.8  68.6  71.5  74.6  81.0  86.2  91.6  95.5  U  U  U  U  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]     2.0 -10.0  26.0  24.0  19.0 -14.0 -20.0 -44.0  U  U  U  U  U  U VU VU
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   51.0  52.0  54.0  56.0  52.0  53.0  49.0  49.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  12.0   6.0   5.0   4.0   4.0  -5.0  -2.0  -4.0  U  N  N  N  N  F  N  F


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons