Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL212020 200916 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     21.40     35.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -10.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     4.60             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     13.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      3.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      5.40             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     76.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        55.8  58.2  53.0  48.3  43.1  39.8  35.5  35.5 VU VU VU VU VU  U  U  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    2.0   3.0   3.0   3.0   2.0   7.0   7.0   7.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         81.5  84.6  87.7  91.0  96.2  99.8 105.5 105.5  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]     3.0  12.0   4.0  34.0 -34.0   5.0   9.0   9.0  U  U  U  N VU  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   53.0  54.0  53.0  52.0  55.0  52.0  51.0  51.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   3.0   0.0   3.0   0.0  -8.0  -5.0 -10.0 -10.0  N  N  N  N  F  F  F  F


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons