Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL212020 200917 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     21.80     36.20
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      0.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      0.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      4.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     88.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        56.3  53.2  47.3  45.1  39.6  36.5  36.5  36.5 VU VU VU VU  U  U  U  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    3.0   3.0   4.0   4.0   7.0   9.0   9.0   9.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         86.1  89.3  92.7  94.4  99.8 103.5 103.5 103.5  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    21.0  19.0   2.0 -13.0 -29.0 -22.0 -22.0 -22.0  U  U  U  U VU VU VU VU
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   53.0  52.0  53.0  55.0  54.0  54.0  54.0  54.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   3.0  -2.0 -10.0  -7.0  -5.0  -9.0  -9.0  -9.0  N  N  F  F  F  F  F  F


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons