Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL212020 200917 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     21.50     37.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      0.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      0.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      0.30             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     74.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        50.2  47.1  45.1  43.1  38.1  33.6  33.6  33.6 VU VU VU VU  U  U  U  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    4.0   4.0   3.0   5.0   9.0  11.0  11.0  11.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         96.0  99.4 101.2 104.8 108.5 112.4 112.4 112.4  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    23.0   0.0 -35.0 -39.0  -5.0  15.0  15.0  15.0  U  U VU VU  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   51.0  52.0  52.0  53.0  53.0  51.0  51.0  51.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -1.0 -10.0 -11.0  -7.0  -9.0  -8.0  -8.0  -8.0  N  F  F  F  F  F  F  F


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons