Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL222020 200917 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     21.80     94.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     7.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     30.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      7.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      8.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    110.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        15.5  16.9  14.9  19.6  24.2  24.0  22.7  18.5  F  F  F  N  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   87.0  93.0  89.0  84.0  89.0  77.0  61.0  53.0  N  F  F  N  F  N  N  N
 Potential [kt]        135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    35.0  37.0  52.0  54.0  18.0  62.0  38.0  43.0  N  N  N  N  U  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   76.0  79.0  79.0  76.0  66.0  58.0  53.0  55.0  F  F  F  F  N  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   0.0  -1.0  -1.0   2.0   5.0  13.0   9.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  U  U


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        1.2%        3.6%        2.4%
 25kt / 24h       12.0%       30.2%       21.1%
 30kt / 24h        6.4%       12.4%        9.4%
 35kt / 24h        2.3%       12.4%        7.4%
 40kt / 24h        0.7%       12.4%        6.6%
 45kt / 36h       11.5%       33.3%       22.4%
 55kt / 36h        7.8%       14.3%       11.0%
 55kt / 48h       29.4%       24.3%       26.8%
 70kt / 48h       23.7%       16.8%       20.3%
 65kt / 72h       55.8%       37.5%       46.7%