Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL222020 200918 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     22.00     94.20
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     9.00             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     22.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      1.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      8.30             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    109.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        14.6  13.6  17.4  24.6  19.5  26.9  17.3  21.0  F  F  F  N  N  N  F  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   88.0  93.0  87.0  82.0  90.0  80.0  67.0  65.0  F  F  N  N  F  N  N  N
 Potential [kt]        135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    37.0  52.0  54.0  31.0  32.0  49.0  27.0  58.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  U  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   80.0  79.0  76.0  72.0  64.0  56.0  57.0  59.0  F  F  F  N  N  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   0.0  -1.0  -1.0   0.0  11.0   6.0  13.0  N  N  N  N  N  U  N  U


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        1.2%        3.4%        2.3%
 25kt / 24h        9.5%       24.9%       17.2%
 30kt / 24h        5.1%        9.4%        7.3%
 35kt / 24h        1.9%        9.4%        5.6%
 40kt / 24h        0.6%        9.4%        5.0%
 45kt / 36h       11.5%       30.8%       21.1%
 55kt / 36h        7.9%       12.5%       10.2%
 55kt / 48h       28.2%       21.5%       24.9%
 70kt / 48h       24.0%       13.9%       19.0%
 65kt / 72h       60.3%       37.4%       48.8%