Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL222020 200918 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     22.60     94.20
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.60             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     24.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     17.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      5.70             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     97.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        14.4  17.7  27.2  25.9  25.6  21.4  19.6  15.1  F  F  N  N  N  N  N  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   91.0  87.0  83.0  87.0  83.0  66.0  66.0  53.0  F  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Potential [kt]        135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    57.0  68.0  26.0  32.0  71.0  51.0  46.0  55.0  N  N  U  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   78.0  76.0  72.0  68.0  59.0  54.0  59.0  62.0  F  F  N  N  U  U  U  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -1.0  -2.0  -1.0   2.0  13.0  15.0  14.0  12.0  N  N  N  N  U  U  U  U


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        1.3%        3.3%        2.3%
 25kt / 24h        7.5%       21.1%       14.3%
 30kt / 24h        3.8%        7.0%        5.4%
 35kt / 24h        1.0%        6.6%        3.8%
 40kt / 24h        0.8%        6.6%        3.7%
 45kt / 36h       10.5%       26.6%       18.5%
 55kt / 36h        6.4%        9.0%        7.7%
 55kt / 48h       25.8%       17.4%       21.6%
 70kt / 48h       21.2%       10.1%       15.6%
 65kt / 72h       58.7%       32.0%       45.4%