Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL222020 200918 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     23.50     94.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     38.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     27.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      7.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    114.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        20.4  29.9  29.3  30.7  31.4  20.0  21.0  12.9  N  N  N  U  U  N  N  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   81.0  82.0  79.0  67.0  56.0  62.0  61.0  34.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  U
 Potential [kt]        135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    67.0  57.0  38.0  48.0  43.0  37.0  68.0  10.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   75.0  70.0  65.0  64.0  54.0  56.0  62.0  66.0  F  N  N  N  U  U  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -1.0   4.0  12.0   9.0  24.0   7.0   8.0   4.0  N  N  U  U VU  N  U  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.8%        2.2%        1.5%
 25kt / 24h        5.7%       16.6%       11.2%
 30kt / 24h        2.2%        4.8%        3.5%
 35kt / 24h        0.7%        4.8%        2.8%
 40kt / 24h        0.2%        4.4%        2.3%
 45kt / 36h        4.0%       16.9%       10.5%
 55kt / 36h        1.9%        4.8%        3.4%
 55kt / 48h       13.5%       11.3%       12.4%
 70kt / 48h        7.8%        5.5%        6.6%
 65kt / 72h       39.6%       21.3%       30.5%