Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL222020 200918 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     23.90     93.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.00             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     45.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     32.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      7.50             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    127.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        32.3  31.6  26.1  24.6  21.2  20.2  18.9  14.8  U  U  N  N  N  N  N  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   88.0  86.0  70.0  61.0  57.0  64.0  57.0  49.0  F  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Potential [kt]        130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    29.0  28.0  41.0  35.0  43.0  52.0  48.0   5.0  N  U  N  N  N  N  N  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   69.0  66.0  62.0  57.0  51.0  55.0  61.0  69.0  N  N  N  U  U  U  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   4.0   0.0   4.0  11.0  12.0  13.0   7.0  N  N  N  N  U  U  U  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        2.1%        2.8%        2.5%
 25kt / 24h        9.8%       21.6%       15.7%
 30kt / 24h        4.9%        7.6%        6.3%
 35kt / 24h        3.0%        7.6%        5.3%
 40kt / 24h        0.5%        6.9%        3.7%
 45kt / 36h        8.3%       26.1%       17.2%
 55kt / 36h        4.6%        9.4%        7.0%
 55kt / 48h       17.8%       16.9%       17.4%
 70kt / 48h       10.9%       10.3%       10.6%
 65kt / 72h       39.3%       27.4%       33.3%