Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL222020 200919 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     25.30     92.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    45.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    15.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     46.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     32.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      8.70             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    116.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        34.3  32.1  31.6  30.5  19.6  20.5  15.8  23.6  U  U  U  N  N  N  F  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   66.0  44.0  41.0  37.0  49.0  75.0  64.0  35.0  N  N  N  U  N  N  N  U
 Potential [kt]        120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    25.0  47.0  43.0  57.0  15.0  61.0  45.0  36.0  U  N  N  N  U  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   62.0  59.0  55.0  51.0  54.0  57.0  64.0  64.0  N  U  U  U  U  U  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  10.0   5.0  12.0  12.0   4.0  13.0   9.0   6.0  U  N  U  U  N  U  U  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       10.8%        5.5%        8.1%
 25kt / 24h       16.4%       24.9%       20.6%
 30kt / 24h       10.9%       10.9%       10.9%
 35kt / 24h        9.1%       10.9%       10.0%
 40kt / 24h        3.1%       10.8%        6.9%
 45kt / 36h       11.7%       27.9%       19.8%
 55kt / 36h        6.1%       11.3%        8.7%
 55kt / 48h       11.2%       15.0%       13.1%
 70kt / 48h        6.5%        8.5%        7.5%
 65kt / 72h       18.9%       17.4%       18.1%