Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL222020 200919 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     25.80     92.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    50.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    50.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    15.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     40.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     37.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      5.40             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     97.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        32.8  32.0  30.6  23.1  20.9  18.7  19.8  22.1  U  U  U  N  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   48.0  41.0  43.0  48.0  69.0  70.0  37.0  34.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  U  U
 Potential [kt]        115.0 115.0 115.0 115.0 115.0 115.0 115.0 115.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    45.0  57.0  52.0  39.0  46.0  26.0  18.0  30.0  N  N  N  N  N  U  U  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   61.0  56.0  52.0  51.0  56.0  56.0  64.0  60.0  N  U  U  U  U  U  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   4.0  15.0  15.0  11.0  12.0   8.0   9.0   8.0  N  U  U  U  U  U  U  U


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       12.9%        5.8%        9.3%
 25kt / 24h       18.5%       27.5%       23.0%
 30kt / 24h       13.6%       13.7%       13.6%
 35kt / 24h        9.6%       13.7%       11.6%
 40kt / 24h        8.5%       13.7%       11.1%
 45kt / 36h       17.5%       29.7%       23.6%
 55kt / 36h        9.3%       11.6%       10.5%
 55kt / 48h       15.4%       16.5%       15.9%
 70kt / 48h        8.3%        8.0%        8.2%
 65kt / 72h       14.8%       13.0%       13.9%