Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL222020 200919 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     26.50     92.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    50.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    50.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]    10.60             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     15.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      2.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      5.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    105.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        33.6  31.5  24.4  21.1  24.7  17.7  22.9  18.2  U  U  N  N  N  F  N  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   39.0  38.0  46.0  58.0  72.0  40.0  34.0  38.0  U  U  N  N  N  N  U  U
 Potential [kt]        115.0 115.0 115.0 115.0 115.0 115.0 115.0 115.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    45.0  31.0  29.0  31.0  57.0  45.0  41.0  17.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   54.0  49.0  47.0  51.0  54.0  59.0  59.0  57.0  U  U VU  U  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   9.0  16.0  11.0   5.0  11.0   6.0   7.0   0.0  U  U  U  N  U  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.9%        0.8%        0.9%
 25kt / 24h        2.0%        6.8%        4.4%
 30kt / 24h        1.4%        2.4%        1.9%
 35kt / 24h        0.9%        2.4%        1.6%
 40kt / 24h        0.5%        2.4%        1.4%
 45kt / 36h        3.1%        5.0%        4.1%
 55kt / 36h        1.0%        1.0%        1.0%
 55kt / 48h        4.2%        4.9%        4.6%
 70kt / 48h        2.1%        1.1%        1.6%
 65kt / 72h       13.5%        3.9%        8.7%