Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL222020 200919 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     26.50     92.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    50.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    50.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     15.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     11.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      5.10             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     83.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        30.8  23.6  20.2  20.9  20.0  19.1  23.9  20.4  U  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   42.0  42.0  50.0  65.0  77.0  44.0  35.0  39.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  U  U
 Potential [kt]        115.0 115.0 115.0 115.0 115.0 115.0 115.0 115.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    34.0  33.0  20.0  55.0  40.0  25.0  41.0  21.0  N  N  U  N  N  U  N  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   52.0  50.0  50.0  51.0  54.0  60.0  55.0  55.0  U  U  U  U  U  N  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   7.0   8.0   1.0   7.0  10.0  10.0  11.0   2.0  N  U  N  N  U  U  U  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        1.5%        1.2%        1.4%
 25kt / 24h        3.8%       10.2%        7.0%
 30kt / 24h        2.6%        4.1%        3.3%
 35kt / 24h        1.6%        4.1%        2.9%
 40kt / 24h        1.6%        4.1%        2.9%
 45kt / 36h        6.5%        7.9%        7.2%
 55kt / 36h        2.7%        1.9%        2.3%
 55kt / 48h        8.6%        7.6%        8.1%
 70kt / 48h        4.7%        1.9%        3.3%
 65kt / 72h       18.5%        5.3%       11.9%