Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL222020 200920 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     26.80     92.20
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    50.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    50.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      8.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      1.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      5.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     83.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        25.2  21.4  24.1  26.1  19.7  24.5  19.6  27.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   34.0  34.0  45.0  57.0  48.0  37.0  45.0  35.0  U  U  N  N  N  U  N  U
 Potential [kt]        115.0 115.0 115.0 115.0 115.0 115.0 115.0 115.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    32.0  35.0  38.0  37.0  33.0  18.0  21.0   6.0  N  N  N  N  N  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   49.0  51.0  52.0  53.0  56.0  60.0  56.0  51.0  U  U  U  U  U  N  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  11.0   3.0  11.0  12.0   6.0   8.0   4.0  -2.0  U  N  U  U  N  U  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        1.5%        1.3%        1.4%
 25kt / 24h        2.4%        8.0%        5.2%
 30kt / 24h        1.8%        3.3%        2.5%
 35kt / 24h        1.2%        3.3%        2.2%
 40kt / 24h        1.2%        3.3%        2.2%
 45kt / 36h        4.4%        5.9%        5.1%
 55kt / 36h        1.6%        1.3%        1.5%
 55kt / 48h        4.2%        4.9%        4.6%
 70kt / 48h        1.8%        1.1%        1.4%
 65kt / 72h       10.4%        3.2%        6.8%