Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL222020 200920 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     26.90     92.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    50.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    50.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      8.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      6.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      3.50             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     77.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        20.7  24.1  26.2  24.5  25.2  26.9  23.7  25.6  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   36.0  44.0  60.0  66.0  40.0  41.0  41.0  33.0  U  N  N  N  N  N  N  U
 Potential [kt]        115.0 115.0 115.0 115.0 115.0 115.0 115.0 115.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    36.0  41.0  32.0  34.0  36.0  24.0   9.0   4.0  N  N  N  N  N  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   52.0  52.0  51.0  51.0  56.0  53.0  50.0  43.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   1.0   9.0  11.0  11.0  11.0  10.0  -1.0   4.0  N  U  U  U  U  U  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        1.9%        1.8%        1.8%
 25kt / 24h        3.4%       10.0%        6.7%
 30kt / 24h        2.5%        4.1%        3.3%
 35kt / 24h        1.8%        4.1%        2.9%
 40kt / 24h        1.8%        4.1%        2.9%
 45kt / 36h        4.9%        6.5%        5.7%
 55kt / 36h        1.9%        1.4%        1.7%
 55kt / 48h        4.0%        4.5%        4.2%
 70kt / 48h        1.6%        1.0%        1.3%
 65kt / 72h        9.9%        2.9%        6.4%