Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL222020 200920 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     27.10     92.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    50.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    50.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.60             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     24.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     12.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      4.10             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     85.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        21.8  26.1  22.8  22.5  27.4  24.6  29.5  29.4  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   42.0  57.0  59.0  46.0  40.0  34.0  18.0   5.0  N  N  N  N  N  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        115.0 115.0 115.0 115.0 115.0 115.0 115.0 115.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    35.0  29.0  31.0  26.0  25.0  11.0   4.0 -22.0  N  N  N  U  U  U  U VU
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   51.0  51.0  50.0  53.0  56.0  53.0  46.0  47.0  U  U  U  U  U  U VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   8.0  15.0  11.0   6.0   8.0   1.0  -4.0   1.0  U  U  U  N  U  N  F  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        2.1%        2.5%        2.3%
 25kt / 24h        5.4%       14.4%        9.9%
 30kt / 24h        3.8%        6.3%        5.0%
 35kt / 24h        1.8%        6.3%        4.0%
 40kt / 24h        1.8%        6.3%        4.0%
 45kt / 36h        4.8%        8.5%        6.7%
 55kt / 36h        1.9%        2.1%        2.0%
 55kt / 48h        4.0%        5.7%        4.9%
 70kt / 48h        1.3%        1.3%        1.3%
 65kt / 72h        4.5%        2.5%        3.5%