Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL222020 200920 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     27.60     93.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    50.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    50.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     31.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     17.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      5.70             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     82.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        28.3  25.3  25.8  27.8  26.8  27.5  30.3  38.6  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   52.0  48.0  40.0  40.0  32.0  12.0   6.0   5.0  N  N  N  N  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        115.0 115.0 115.0 115.0 115.0 115.0 115.0 115.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    38.0  34.0  20.0  30.0  14.0  14.0 -17.0  18.0  N  N  U  N  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   47.0  48.0  50.0  54.0  53.0  49.0  46.0  47.0 VU  U  U  U  U  U VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  12.0  10.0   5.0  10.0   8.0  -6.0   8.0   1.0  U  U  N  U  U  F  U  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        1.9%        2.1%        2.0%
 25kt / 24h        4.1%       11.3%        7.7%
 30kt / 24h        2.5%        4.4%        3.4%
 35kt / 24h        1.4%        4.4%        2.9%
 40kt / 24h        1.4%        4.4%        2.9%
 45kt / 36h        2.9%        6.6%        4.8%
 55kt / 36h        0.9%        1.5%        1.2%
 55kt / 48h        1.7%        4.3%        3.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.4%        1.0%        0.7%
 65kt / 72h        1.4%        1.5%        1.4%