Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL222020 200921 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     27.60     94.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    50.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    50.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     8.60             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     10.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      0.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     99.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        24.5  24.6  26.7  29.9  26.6  30.4  29.2  44.7  N  N  N  N  N  N  N VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   50.0  41.0  37.0  39.0  29.0  25.0  17.0   4.0  N  N  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        115.0 115.0 115.0 115.0 115.0 115.0 115.0 115.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    38.0  18.0  27.0  24.0  14.0 -12.0 -24.0  22.0  N  U  U  U  U  U VU  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   48.0  51.0  57.0  54.0  52.0  47.0  47.0  43.0  U  U  U  U  U VU VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  10.0   5.0  11.0   5.0   0.0  -3.0   1.0   3.0  U  N  U  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        1.8%        1.4%        1.6%
 25kt / 24h        2.3%        7.0%        4.7%
 30kt / 24h        1.7%        2.8%        2.2%
 35kt / 24h        1.0%        2.8%        1.9%
 40kt / 24h        0.7%        2.8%        1.8%
 45kt / 36h        2.1%        3.7%        2.9%
 55kt / 36h        0.6%        0.8%        0.7%
 55kt / 48h        0.6%        2.6%        1.6%
 70kt / 48h        0.1%        0.6%        0.4%
 65kt / 72h        1.4%        1.0%        1.2%