Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL222020 200921 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     27.60     94.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    45.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     9.00             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      0.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      0.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      3.40             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     95.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        22.9  23.8  28.2  27.7  27.0  26.5  33.5  47.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  U VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   41.0  33.0  33.0  34.0  30.0  37.0  19.0   4.0  N  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    21.0  29.0  23.0  23.0  13.0 -17.0  17.0  14.0  U  N  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   52.0  53.0  52.0  51.0  48.0  45.0  46.0  43.0  U  U  U  U  U VU VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   4.0   7.0   3.0   6.0  -2.0   3.0   0.0   5.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.4%        0.8%        0.6%
 25kt / 24h        0.7%        4.4%        2.5%
 30kt / 24h        0.3%        1.4%        0.8%
 35kt / 24h        0.1%        1.3%        0.7%
 40kt / 24h        0.1%        1.3%        0.7%
 45kt / 36h        0.7%        2.6%        1.6%
 55kt / 36h        0.2%        0.5%        0.3%
 55kt / 48h        0.5%        2.0%        1.2%
 70kt / 48h        0.1%        0.4%        0.3%
 65kt / 72h        1.8%        0.8%        1.3%