Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL222020 200921 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     27.80     95.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    45.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     5.00             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     15.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      9.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      3.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     73.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        24.5  27.8  26.6  25.4  28.5  28.2  43.2  53.5  N  N  N  N  N  N VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   27.0  25.0  25.0  27.0  30.0  34.0  12.0   3.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    45.0  26.0  28.0  26.0 -25.0 -17.0  28.0   5.0  N  U  U  U VU  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   55.0  53.0  52.0  51.0  45.0  45.0  45.0  44.0  U  U  U  U VU VU VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   8.0   4.0   4.0   0.0  -4.0   0.0   2.0   0.0  U  N  N  N  F  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.3%        0.8%        0.6%
 25kt / 24h        0.7%        5.4%        3.1%
 30kt / 24h        0.5%        1.7%        1.1%
 35kt / 24h        0.5%        1.7%        1.1%
 40kt / 24h        0.5%        1.7%        1.1%
 45kt / 36h        0.5%        3.2%        1.9%
 55kt / 36h        0.1%        0.6%        0.4%
 55kt / 48h        0.2%        2.3%        1.3%
 70kt / 48h        0.1%        0.5%        0.3%
 65kt / 72h        0.5%        0.7%        0.6%