Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL222020 200921 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     28.10     96.00
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    40.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    40.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.40             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      3.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      0.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      3.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     82.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        28.8  27.8  23.9  25.4  27.3  32.8  48.0  50.7  N  N  N  N  N  U VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   25.0  25.0  26.0  28.0  35.0  33.0   2.0   3.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 124.3  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    19.0  14.0  21.0  16.0 -14.0  23.0  18.0  25.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   53.0  52.0  52.0  49.0  46.0  45.0  42.0  43.0  U  U  U  U VU VU VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   5.0   6.0  -1.0  -4.0   2.0  -4.0   4.0   0.0  N  N  N  F  N  F  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.1%        0.5%        0.3%
 25kt / 24h        0.6%        3.6%        2.1%
 30kt / 24h        0.1%        1.1%        0.6%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        1.0%        0.5%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        1.0%        0.5%
 45kt / 36h        0.1%        2.5%        1.3%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.5%        0.2%
 55kt / 48h        0.1%        1.7%        0.9%
 70kt / 48h        0.1%        0.4%        0.3%
 65kt / 72h        0.3%        0.5%        0.4%