Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL222020 200922 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     28.30     96.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    40.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    40.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      0.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      0.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      3.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     88.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        29.1  23.6  25.3  28.4  27.6  40.1  49.5  60.7  N  N  N  N  N  U VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   27.0  29.0  31.0  33.0  40.0  30.0   3.0   2.0  U  U  U  U  N  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 124.3  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]     8.0  14.0 -15.0 -32.0 -22.0  44.0  21.0  42.0  U  U  U VU VU  N  U  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   53.0  53.0  50.0  49.0  50.0  46.0  45.0  43.0  U  U  U  U  U VU VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   8.0   0.0  -1.0  -2.0   1.0   1.0  -3.0   7.0  U  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.1%        0.5%        0.3%
 25kt / 24h        0.4%        3.0%        1.7%
 30kt / 24h        0.1%        1.0%        0.5%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.8%        0.4%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.8%        0.4%
 45kt / 36h        0.1%        2.2%        1.1%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.4%        0.2%
 55kt / 48h        0.1%        1.3%        0.7%
 70kt / 48h        0.1%        0.3%        0.2%
 65kt / 72h        0.1%        0.4%        0.2%