Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL222020 200922 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     28.60     96.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.60             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      4.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      0.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      3.30             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     87.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        24.1  23.8  28.3  26.7  32.5  49.3  55.4  57.7  N  N  N  N  U VU VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   26.0  24.0  26.0  31.0  26.0   6.0   3.0   2.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 111.5  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    10.0 -18.0 -26.0 -14.0  39.0  30.0  31.0  -8.0  U  U VU  U  N  N  N  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   52.0  48.0  48.0  47.0  46.0  40.0  39.0  36.0  U  U  U VU VU VU VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0  -1.0  -2.0   3.0   1.0   3.0   1.0   9.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  U


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.1%        0.5%        0.3%
 25kt / 24h        0.4%        3.1%        1.7%
 30kt / 24h        0.1%        1.0%        0.6%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.7%        0.4%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.7%        0.4%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        2.5%        1.3%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.4%        0.2%
 55kt / 48h        0.1%        0.9%        0.5%
 70kt / 48h        0.1%        0.2%        0.2%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%