Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL222020 200922 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     28.80     96.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.00             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      0.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      0.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      3.10             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     88.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        24.3  28.1  29.3  29.3  46.5  55.7  61.6  50.9  N  N  N  N VU VU VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   14.0  17.0  18.0  14.0   1.0   3.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 127.0 105.5  91.0  F  F  F  F  F  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   -20.0 -20.0  -6.0 -14.0  31.0  25.0   9.0  17.0 VU VU  U  U  N  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   49.0  47.0  47.0  47.0  43.0  42.0  42.0  41.0  U VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -1.0  -2.0   4.0   0.0   6.0   3.0  17.0  28.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  U VU


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.4%        0.2%
 25kt / 24h        0.2%        2.3%        1.2%
 30kt / 24h        0.1%        0.7%        0.4%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.5%        0.3%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.5%        0.3%
 45kt / 36h        0.1%        1.2%        0.7%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.3%        0.2%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%