Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL222020 200923 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     28.90     95.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    25.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    25.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -10.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      0.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      0.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      0.30             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     86.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        28.1  27.0  36.5  47.4  62.4  63.1  47.1  37.9  N  N  U VU VU VU VU  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   25.0  22.0   4.0   2.0   3.0   0.0   0.0   2.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 134.6 117.4 104.4  97.7  F  F  F  F  F  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]     8.0  -6.0  46.0  37.0  14.0  49.0  -3.0 -19.0  U  U  N  N  U  N  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   45.0  46.0  45.0  43.0  39.0  36.0  37.0  30.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   5.0  -1.0   7.0   8.0  14.0  17.0  18.0   9.0  N  N  N  U  U  U VU  U


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        0.8%        0.4%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.3%        0.2%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%