Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL222020 200923 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     29.30     95.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    25.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    25.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.00             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      0.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      0.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      1.10             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     89.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        28.8  36.1  48.5  55.1  59.9  62.1  48.1  48.1  N  U VU VU VU VU VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    8.0   2.0   2.0   2.0   0.0   0.0   1.0   1.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        140.0 140.0 140.0 139.3 115.5 101.0  94.6  94.6  F  F  F  F  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]     5.0  50.0  49.0  45.0  55.0  -8.0  12.0  12.0  U  N  N  N  N  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   46.0  45.0  42.0  39.0  40.0  41.0  40.0  40.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   2.0   5.0  12.0  18.0  30.0  40.0  40.0  N  N  N  U VU VU VU VU


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.3%        0.1%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        1.0%        0.5%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.4%        0.2%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%