Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL222020 200923 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     30.00     94.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    25.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    25.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.40             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      0.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      0.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      1.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     97.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        37.7  49.0  58.4  59.5  62.1  52.8  52.8  52.8  U VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    2.0   2.0   3.0   2.0   0.0   1.0   1.0   1.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        140.0 140.0 137.0 125.7 108.0  99.3  99.3  99.3  F  F  F  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    54.0  51.0  47.0  39.0  15.0  -3.0  -3.0  -3.0  N  N  N  N  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   44.0  42.0  39.0  38.0  38.0  40.0  40.0  40.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   8.0   7.0  12.0  11.0  16.0  24.0  24.0  24.0  U  N  U  U  U VU VU VU


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        0.3%        0.2%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%